-If you need steel in the coming weeks, how many mills can make it?  The answer to this question will largely determine how much you will pay for the metal.  Although always a key determining factor in final pricing, today’s mill books reflect a feast or famine scenario. 

-Some mills have lead times well into March and in some cases April.  Others have hot rolled availability in two weeks. Producers with healthy March books will likely be reluctant to cut deals to overbook their busy mills.  Prudent from a production standpoint, but the futures market suggests the days of booking $ 740 HRC are numbered.

-The CME HRC index showed declines every day last week.    No cliff dives, but February trades settled at a $ 725 average and July 2012 sagged to $ 675.

-Likely culprits for the waning paper market are import offers and deals.  Though shrugged off by execs in recent mill earnings calls, April looks to be the month where imported steel will hit American shores in earnest.

-Sometimes misfortune can lead to market tightening, but ArcelorMittal’s ability to bring back their Burns Harbor rolling capabilities back online within a week of a massive flood quashed supply chain questions.

-The price volatility our market now routinely demonstrates suggests that prices don’t plateau for long.  The indicators we’re following don’t predict a departure from this new normal.