-Hot Band pricing in China now well under $600.  World spot ore has fallen into the $115 / ton range.  This is from a price earlier in the year of over $180.  This is a dramatic fall and would imply that pricing for bands is headed to $500 in a hurry in China.  Scrap markets have been falling, but not as dramatically.  Early forecasts for scrap was “down $10-20” but this looks more like down $40-60 and with a  bias toward continued movement downward. 

-In the USA the mills have begin to quote work more cheaply than existing costs in anticipation of costs coming in line with pricing – much as we have witnessed in the service center industry recently. 

-Europe’s debt deal last week put a floor underneath Copper, Oil, etc.  However, within a day of the announcement questions remained about Europe’s ability to implement the plan. 

-Likely that we will get a bounce off of current low numbers sometime in 1q – the question is off of what #?  With scrap coming down as expected, no reason that HRC doesn’t get to $28 sometime before Thanksgiving.   Look for the run to begin once December is filled.  Important to watch the production/ consumption numbers in China.  If this gets out of balance, the 1Q run will be muted as Chinese steel will find its way onto the global stage in a meaningful way.  Last year, big news was made that the ore market went to “spot” and that the change would mean higher prices.  Now it means lower prices.