-Our bullish comments over the past two weeks appear to be justified by mill announcements.  With strong order entry at depressed prices, and marginal producers facing a clear revenue / cost issue – something had to give.  We expect that with last week’s announcements: 1. The slide is over 2. “Deal making” for tons will cease and 3. Some of the increases will take hold immediately.  We expect HRC to settle in the $680–$700 range over the next couple of weeks.  

-Domestic demand continues to be stronger than expected as almost all demand segments continue to report a positive demand bias.  

-Chinese production numbers and pricing continues to uptick – putting a short term floor on the world price for flat rolled.

-The delta between US coil prices and those in China and Russia continues to narrow.  For the time being, import will not be attractive as pricing around the world is in a more balanced place than two months ago.  

-Ore remains stable to strong – with spot transactions at the end of last week reaching $147/metric tonne in Asia.  We believe that scrap will have a stable to strong outlook for the next several months. Other global commodities are moving higher.  Positive US macro-economic data continues.

-Was last week the bottom of a soon to be realize “V” shaped price phenomenon?  Doubtful.  But supply resolve appears to be in place to secure a bottom in this current micro market.