-USA capacity utilization rates rose above 80% last week, in the face of evidence suggesting a weakening economy during April.
-Demand seemed flat from our perspective. Further- price increases announced last month have gone some way to squelching apparent demand. However, scrap looks set to rebound in May and June – chicken and the egg.
-Increased supply in a saturated market usually doesn’t bode well for pricing and this week saw more price erosion. There is ample profit in an EAF band right now. Fair value is likely $640-660.
-Imports continue to impact the North American market creating further drag on pricing. Northern Europe continues to attempt to sort out big issues.
-HRC futures were down only slightly for the week making the case that this recent price slide may not persist. Pricing in China has been weakening on record production numbers.
-As mills consider Q3 and 2nd half contract pricing, the pressure will be on for producers to influence the CRU indices that underpin the pricing structure for these deals. However, buyers seem to be waiting for a deal on June tons. Lead times at some of the mills for HRC are very short – less than a week in some cases.
-The method of choice in recent cycles has been price announcements. Based on how quickly the markets shrugged off the last two announcements, it’s doubtful that the third time will be the charm.