-Announcements from most North American flat rolled producers have arrested the spring/ summer price slide.   The hikes appear to be justifiable as order entry had picked up over the prior weeks and some supply disruption may have been inevitable.   We expect producers to announce a second round of price increases soon to ensure the price floor.  USA price vs. China and North Europe are close enough that our price can rise $40-$60 without too much pressure from import at this time of year.  The timing likely will not make sense.  However, if our price rises much more than that, imports will be contracted for delivery in 4Q.  

-Last week, and likely this week, appears to be no time to attempt to negotiate with the mills.  They are resolute to press forward to $31-$32. This is welcomed news to stockist who have been watching the devaluation of inventories over the last eight weeks.  As best as we can tell USA real demand is flat.  

-Of note is that our firming is a regional condition as pressure still exists generally around the world.   The dollar strengthened again toward the end of the week last week and is now stronger than it has been in five years, save a brief period in mid 2010.   Crude oil, after a brief rally is moderating. Domestic lead times remain tame and the July fall in scrap (now forecasted to be as high at $60) will open up a wide gulf between integrated and EAF costs.  

-We believe buyers will be cautious and not jump too hard to book tons at the new numbers and will be even more cautious at numbers over $640 –  as a negative bias will likely resume for forth quarter.