The fundamentals in the flat rolled space continue to improve. Raw material pricing put in another week of gains. US CRU HRC prices were flat, but have yet to reflect a small increase due to the price hike announcements made by ArcelorMittal and NLMK. The US dollar remains subdued after its month’s long rally. Imports look to be slowing. Lead times, production and utilization rates at the mills have been moving incrementally higher. Crude oil prices have rallied above 60 and have remained in the high 50s for almost a full month. Demand is growing, although moderately. Housing has showed some flickers of life and this week’s job data showed a very strong gain in new construction jobs. Combine these factors with the potential closure of US Steel’s Granite City mill and ArcelorMittal’s comments about rationalizing assets, upcoming labor contract negotiations plus the lurking threat of countervailing and anti-dumping trade cases and it is clear the momentum has shifted in the favor of the supply side for the moment. Upside price risk outweighs the downside.